Hurricane Forecasters Predict Very Active Atlantic Season

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The Atlantic hurricane season unofficially starts on June 1 and if forecasters at Colorado State University are correct, it will be a very active season. The team predicts activity to be at 175 percent of normal, a level sure to cause concern among residents in the western Atlantic.

The 2010 hurricane season was a busy one and saw the third most named s... but mercifully, none made landfall in the United States. For the 2011 season the CSU team expects things to be slightly calmer but still far above normal.

CSU forecasters are calling for 16 named storms during the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Of those they expect nine will become hurricanes and five of those will be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

These estimates far exceed the historical 1950 to 2000 average. During that period the Atlantic averaged 9.6 named storms per year, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.

The team warned that whether a hurricane forecast calls for above or below normal activity, residents should always be equally prepared. Dr. Phil Klotzbach said, “It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.”

Breaking down the team’s analysis further, they gave a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. By comparison, the long-term average probability is 52 percent.

By region CSU forecasters put a 48% chance on the probability that a major hurricane will strike the East Coast. Nearly matching that they said there was a 47% probably a major hurricane would hit on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Dr. William Gray noted that overall the Atlantic Basin is primed for significant hurricane activity. He said that since 1999, only the 2004 and 2005 seasons saw a major hurricane make landfall in the U.S. and this scenario is not likely to continue. Gray warns, "This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”

From Colorado State University:

CSU RESEARCH TEAM
EXTENDED RANGE ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2011
-Released April 6, 2011-
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1950-2000) Climatological Averages Forecast for 2011
in parentheses)
Named Storms (9.6)* 16
Named Storm Days (49.1) 80
Hurricanes (5.9) 9
Hurricane Days (24.5) 35
Major Hurricanes (2.3) 5
Major Hurricane Days (5.0) 10
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (96) 160
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%) 175
* Numbers in ( ) represent average year totals based on 1950-2000 data.

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