Forecasters Predict Above-Average 2010 Hurricane Season

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The Colorado State University forecast team predicts an above-average 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season based on the premise that El Nino conditions will dissipate by this summer and that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures will persist.

The team predicts 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 with eight expected to be hurricanes and four developing into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.

“We expect current moderate El Nino conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year’s hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster on the CSU Hurricane Forecast Team. “The dissipating El Nino, along with the expected anomalously warm Atlantic ocean sea surface temperatures, will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane formation and intensification.”

The 2010 forecast marks 27 years of hurricane forecasting at Colorado State, led by William Gray. The hurricane forecast team makes its predictions based on 58 years of historical data.

See entire article here: http://bit.ly/9qqRAK

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